Activities

Amman, June 21, 2026

The Phenix Center for Economic and Informatics Studies has released a new report entitled “Assessing the Impacts of the U.S.–Israeli War Against Iran on Food Security.” The report examines the consequences of the war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions in energy, fertilizer, and maritime transport markets on global and regional food systems, with a particular focus on the Arab region as one of the world’s most food-import-dependent regions.

The report notes that despite the signing of a memorandum of understanding intended to pave the way for de-escalation, and despite the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which carries positive initial indications for the restoration of shipping and trade flows—the risks associated with the conflict have not yet subsided. The report highlights that the lingering effects of the previous closure of the Strait, the uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, the persistence of potential flashpoints across the region, and Israeli efforts to obstruct negotiations or maintain regional tensions continue to pose serious threats to food security, energy markets, and international trade.

According to the report, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a necessary step toward easing pressure on oil, gas, shipping, and fertilizer markets, while restoring confidence in global supply chains. However, the report stresses that reopening the Strait alone will not eliminate existing risks unless accompanied by political and security guarantees that ensure the stability of maritime navigation, prevent renewed disruptions, and reduce the likelihood of military escalation or attacks on critical routes and infrastructure.

The report explains that the conflict threatens food security not only through the possibility of reduced agricultural production, but more importantly through disruptions to the interconnected systems upon which the modern global food system depends. Food security today is closely linked to energy prices, fertilizer availability, shipping stability, insurance costs, exchange rates, and governments’ ability to finance subsidies, maintain strategic reserves, and support social protection programs. Consequently, any disruption in one of these components can rapidly spread across the entire food supply chain—from production and transportation to storage, processing, distribution, and consumption.

The report identifies the Strait of Hormuz as a central element of the crisis, given its role as one of the world’s most strategic maritime corridors. Vast quantities of oil pass through the Strait daily, along with a significant share of global trade in fertilizers and agricultural inputs, including urea, ammonia, sulfur, and phosphate products. Therefore, any closure or disruption of navigation through the Strait affects not only energy markets but also agricultural production costs and the availability of essential farming inputs worldwide.

The report outlines five principal channels through which the war may affect food security. The first is rising energy prices, which increase the cost of operating agricultural machinery, irrigation systems, transportation, refrigeration, food processing, and storage.

The second concerns disruptions in fertilizer production and trade, particularly nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely heavily on natural gas as both a feedstock and energy source. The third channel is the disruption of maritime transportation, leading to higher shipping and insurance costs and delays in the delivery of food products and agricultural inputs.

The fourth relates to inflationary pressures and exchange-rate volatility, especially in countries that import food using U.S. dollars. The fifth involves mounting fiscal pressures on governments seeking to maintain food subsidies, expand social protection programs, and strengthen strategic reserves amid rising import costs.

The report emphasizes that the Arab region is among the most exposed regions to these shocks due to its structural dependence on imports of food, cereals, vegetable oils, animal feed, fertilizers, and agricultural inputs.

According to the report, this vulnerability stems from a combination of factors, including water scarcity, limited arable land, population pressures, climate change, low agricultural productivity, and heavy reliance on international markets.